5. Conceptual Design of DEMO
Year: 2017
It is no secret that people have been trying to develop an alternative energy source, one that is produced without the undesirable consequences of burning fossil fuels, such as high carbon dioxide emissions. Nuclear energy has been determined as the most efficient solution, specifically nuclear fusion energy development. In the solar system, fusion reactions power the stars and produce virtually all elements. However, if a nuclear fusion reaction is produced under a sustained uncontrolled chain then it can result in a thermonuclear explosion, such as that generated by a hydrogen bomb. For decades, scientists have conducted experiments with controlled nuclear fusion, in the hopes of producing fusion power for the production of electricity. This is a complex process and a substantial energy barrier must be overcome for fusion power to work.
ITER is an engineering project designed to develop nuclear fusion as an energy source. The goal is to produce a commercially successful nuclear fusion reactor. Site preparation for the ITER reactor is underway in Cadarache, France and was originally scheduled to be completed in 2016, but this date has since been moved back. ITER’s mission is to demonstrate the feasibility of fusion power and the reactor will not be used to generate any electricity. Original experiments have proven that fusion energy is possible and these results have spawned the creation of DEMO.
DEMO is a proposed fully-operational nuclear fusion power plant. It is on a much larger scale then ITER and is going to be the first fusion reactor to generate electricity. If all goes to plan, fusion energy could be available in 25 years. It is exciting because fusion energy does not have the atmospheric pollution problems associated with fossil fuels or fission energy. It doesn’t produce transuranic wastes. However, it does have some displaced radioactive waste. The conceptual design for the DEMO fusion power plant is scheduled to be completed by 2017. The engineering design will be done by 2024, with the first phase of operation lasting from 2033 to 2038.
4. IBM Sequoia Supercomputer
Date: 2011
In 1984, a science fiction film called The Terminator was released. The movie portrays a group of intelligent machines that declare war on the human race. In the last 10 years, computer technology has reached an unthinkable level of advancement. Federal governments all over the world are constantly experimenting with highly advanced software and technical hypothesis. People have begun to consider the feasibility of artificial intelligence. A supercomputer is a high tech system that is at the frontline of modern computer capacity. Today, supercomputers contain one-of-a-kind custom designs. They are produced by some of the largest companies in the world, including Cray, IBM and Hewlett-Packard. The Cray Jaguar is currently the fastest supercomputer in the world, with a peak performance of just over 1.75 petaflops. However, many systems are scheduled for release that will dwarf the Cray Jaguar. One example is the massive Sequoia supercomputer.
The Sequoia is a Blue Gene/Q supercomputer being constructed by IBM. The system is scheduled to go online in 2011 at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. The targeted performance for the supercomputer is 20 petaflops, which is more than the combined performance of all the top 500 supercomputers in the world. You might ask what this massive system is going to be used for. It is being built for the US National Nuclear Security Administration as part of the Advanced Simulation and Computing Program (ASC). Sequoia will be used primarily for nuclear simulations, but the supercomputer will also be made available for top researchers in the area of astronomy, energy, the studying of the human genome, and climate change. Sequoia will cover an area of approximately 3000 square feet (914 m).
3. Mayan Long Count Calendar Ends
Date: December 21, 2012
Most people are familiar with the theoretical events of December 21, 2012. On this date, the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar, notably used by the pre-Columbian Maya civilization, completes a “great cycle” of thirteen b’ak’tuns. This has caused a variety of different people to predict that a cataclysmic event will occur in December of 2012. However, scholars from various disciplines- astronomers and other scientists- have rejected the apocalyptic forecasts as pseudoscience. Let’s look at some of the theories surrounding this date. December 21 is the winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere and the summer solstice in the Southern Hemisphere. The winter solstice occurs exactly when the Earth’s axial tilt is farthest away from the sun, with the summer solstice being the exact opposite. A common theory surrounding December 21, 2012 describes a universal galactic alignment.
In the Solar System, the planets and the sun share roughly the same plane of orbit, known as the plane of the ecliptic. It has been suggested that on rare occasions our galactic center aligns with the sunrise of a solstice or equinox. It has been claimed that the last time this happened was 6,450 years ago and that the Maya people predicted it would occur in 2012. Astronomers argue that the galactic equator is an entirely arbitrary line and that no alignment is scheduled for December 21, 2012. The film 2012 is based around the theory of American academician Charles Hapgood. In the 1950s, Hapgood developed the cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis, which suggests that planets experience rapid shifts in the geographic locations of their poles and the axis of rotation. If a geological event caused the Earth’s physical poles to suddenly shift then the planet would experience calamities, such as floods and tectonic events.
This theory interested the mind of Albert Einstein, who wrote the foreword for one of Hapgood’s books on the subject. In 2012, the solar maximum in the 11-year sunspot cycle is forecast to occur. A solar maximum is the period when the sun’s magnetic field is distorted due to the solar equator rotating at a slightly faster pace than at the solar poles. The exact date for the solar maximum can’t be predicted, but sunspots will appear during the event. The scientific world agrees that the sun’s solar maximum can have a grave impact on Earth. It can cause the formation of large solar flares. A solar flare occurs when charged particles on the sun form large explosion in the atmosphere. A large sun blast can cause major electrical problems on Earth, with the potential of destroying large power grids.
2. Apophis Close Encounter
Date: 2029 & 2036
99942 Apophis is a well-known near-Earth asteroid. On June 19, 2004 the asteroid was discovered by a group of American astronomers. The asteroid was originally given the name 2004 MN4, but after the orbit was calculated it received the permanent number 99942. It was then given the name Apophis. Apophis is the Greek name of the Ancient Egyptian enemy Apep, the Uncreator, who is a serpent that dwells in the eternal darkness of earth’s middle. The asteroid was at the center of great concern in 2004 when initial observations produced a mind-blowing 2.7% probability that Apophis would collide with Earth in 2029. In 2004, NASA estimated that there was a 1 in 37 chance that an impact with Earth would occur. This resulted in the asteroid receiving a rating of 4 on the Torino scale. The Torino scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects. The event was the first time that any asteroid received a rating above 1. However, the day after Apophis reached its highest predicted threat, it was announced that new observations allowed scientists to see farther in the future and Apophis was downgraded to a 0 (no threat) on the Torino scale.
Based upon the observed brightness, Apophis’ length is estimated at 450 meters (1,480 ft). On April 13, 2029 Apophis is going to make a close pass by Earth. It will become as bright as magnitude 3.3, which is visible to the naked eye. The asteroid will be so close to Earth that it will pass within the orbits of our communication satellites. It will be an unprecedented moment and such a close approach by an asteroid of this size is expected to occur only every 1,300 years. After the intense study of Apophis, it was determined that the asteroid will make another close pass by Earth in 2036. In fact, astronomers were concerned that the asteroid would travel through a gravitational keyhole in 2029, propelling it towards a future impact on April 13, 2036.
As of October 7, 2009, the impact probability for the 2036 event is calculated at 1 in 250,000. Many scientists have been adamant in letting the public know that the asteroid deserves more scrutiny. Apophis’ close approach in 2029 will substantially alter the objects orbit, making predictions uncertain without further data. The asteroid will make a relatively close pass by Earth in 2013, which will allow astronomers to refine predictions. However, everyone is certain that we do not want the asteroid to fall into orbital resonance with Earth. World governments have started space programs, looking to develop viable deflection strategies for Apophis. One example is Don Quijote, which is a proposed space probe under development by the European Space Agency. It will study the effects of crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid.
1. Year 2038 Problem
Date: January 19, 2038
The Year 2038 Problem is a programming error that may cause important computer software to fail before the year 2038. The event affects all software that store system time as a signed 32-bit integer. These systems interpret time as the number of seconds since Thursday January 1, 1970 and the furthest time that can be represented this way is 03:14:07 UTC on Tuesday, January 19, 2038. All times beyond this moment will wrap around and be stored internally as a negative number, which will cause these 32-bit integer systems to interpret the date as 1901, rather than 2038. This will create erroneous calculations and system failure. Most all 32-bit Unix-like systems store and manipulate time in this format, called Unix time. For this reason, the year 2038 problem is often referred to as the Unix Millennium Bug.
The AOL server software experienced a Unix time problem in 2006 when it was discovered that their server default configuration was set to time out after one billion seconds or approximately 32 years. This caused the system to overflow and return a date that was in the past, ultimately crashing the AOL server. The company was able to fix the problem by editing the configuration file to set the time out to a lower value. However, this was only a temporary fix for AOL. There is currently no straightforward and general solution for the 2038 Unix time problem for existing CPU and operating system combinations. This makes the problem much more serious than the Y2K year 2000 event, in which computer programmers were able to update their systems to avoid failure.
In dealing with the 2038 problem, you can’t simply change the definition of the time data type to a 64-bit setting without breaking binary compatibility for the software. You also can’t change time to an unsigned 32-bit integer without crashing the system. Hundreds of millions of 32-bit systems are deployed around the world. Many of these programs are in important government owned embedded software, which simply can’t be replaced by 2038. Additionally, 32-bit applications running on 64-bit systems are likely to be affected by the issue. Some alternative proposals have been suggested, including storing time in either milliseconds or microseconds. However, to date, no clear solution has been agreed upon and the event remains a strong concern all over the world.
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